Se celebró ayer, 20 de febrero de 2017, la sesión especial del Foro Transiciones sobre energía neta del “sistema petróleo” en la sede de FUHEM, en Madrid. Nos sirvió para constatar los errores e insuficiencias del modelo ETP desarrollado por el Hills Group, que ha ganado mucha atención en los últimos meses. Publico aquí el largo ppt que preparé para esa sesión de ayer, más algunos materiales adicionales.
Y un pertinente comentario en la entrada del blog de Ugo Bardi el 6 de marzo:
I’m impressed by the intelligence of the discussion in this thread, but my concern is that it seems to have detached itself from the purpose of having it in the first place. It seems so often the preoccupation of men (plus dear Gail Tverberg) to try to guess the shape of the decline or collapse of fossil fuel production, and when exactly the ripples will hit us in the developed world, with those who disapprove of “catastrophism” just thinking the date is further in the future than others. But really we’re all just trying to guess the weight of a cow at the county fair unless we keep this discussion in the broader context of overshoot, since peak oil (and declining EROI) is just one symptom of a larger systemic collapse that’s already in progress. The coral reefs are dying, 90% of sperm in a typical male are now malformed or otherwise non-viable, the great methane release has begun all over the world – how does peak oil fit in that contest? Whenever it arrives – 2020 or 2050 or 2005 (if it’s already happening) it apparently will be too late to stop the industrial machine that artificially supports an unsustainable population of 7 billion people and paradoxically threatens our extinction. Is there a way to return or direct this discussion back to the larger context, so it can support public policy)(or revolution) that might save our children and descendants? BTW, for the record, the cow weighs 2,143 pounds and 9 ounces…